Optimal MRD-based end point to support response-adapted treatment cessation in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma
Smith Giri, Binod Dhakal, Natalie S. Callander, Eva Medvedova, Kelly Godby, Bhagirathbhai Dholaria, Susan Bal, Gayathri Ravi, Saurabh Chhabra, Rebecca Silbermann, Luciano J. Costa
Abstract
ABSTRACT: The therapeutic success of first-line quadruplet (QUAD) induction therapy and autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) has reinvigorated an interest in fixed-duration therapy, yet optimal short-term efficacy end point for treatment cessation is unknown. Using data from a phase 2 clinical trial and a prospective institutional database, we tested the predictive performance of 5 short-term efficacy end points among 221 patients who received QUAD + ASCT followed by treatment cessation if minimal residual disease (MRD) by next-generation sequencing negative for 2 consecutive time points. Efficacy end points tested were International Myeloma Working Group-defined stringent complete response, MRD <10-5 (single data point), MRD <10-6, sustained MRD (S-MRD; 2 consecutive assessments at least 1 year apart) <10-5, and S-MRD <10-6. We built 5 parallel Cox regression models for each efficacy end point with progression-free survival (PFS) as the outcome. Best fitting models were determined using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Heagerty and Zheng C-index. The best fitting model (AIC, 417.2; C statistic, 0.757) was based on S-MRD <10-5 (hazard ratio, 0.23; 95% confidence interval, 0.11-0.47). Similar results were seen for predicting the risk of progression/MRD resurgence among 121 patients undergoing MRD-guided treatment cessation. S-MRD <10-5 is the best predictor of PFS and yields the best predictive models for the risk of MRD resurgence or progression in the setting of fixed-duration therapy. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT03224507.