From cause to consequence: examining the historic April 2024 rainstorm in the United Arab Emirates through the lens of climate change
Diana Francis, Ricardo Fonseca, Narendra Nelli, Charfeddine Cherif, Yesobu Yarragunta, George Zittis, Andries Jan de Vries
Abstract
In April 2024, the United Arab Emirates experienced unprecedented rainfall, triggering severe flooding and widespread disruption. Here we investigate the driving mechanisms, localized impacts, and potential influence of human-driven climate change on this extraordinary event. Our findings strongly suggest that anthropogenic climate change is amplifying the frequency of extreme events like that of 16 April 2024. The event was primarily fueled by the interaction of a potential vorticity streamer with an active Red Sea Trough, a powerful upper-level jet, and the advection of warm, moisture-laden air from a warmer Arabian Sea. High-resolution satellite data reveal a clear link between urbanization, population density, and the severity of flood impacts in major cities, alongside a remarkable greening of the desert that lingered into the summer months.