Assessing the Impact of Catastrophic Electricity Loss on the Food Supply Chain
Simon Blouin, Alexander Herwix, Morgan Rivers, Ross Tieman, David Denkenberger
Abstract
Abstract The food supply chain’s heavy reliance on electricity poses significant vulnerabilities in the event of prolonged and widespread power disruptions. This study introduces a system-dynamics model that integrates five critical infrastructures—electric grid, liquid fossil fuels, Internet, transportation, and human workforce—to evaluate the resilience of food supply chains to major power outages. We validated the model using the 2019 Venezuelan blackouts as a case study, demonstrating its predictive validity. We then explored how more extreme electricity losses would disrupt the supply chain. More specifically, we modeled the impact of a large-scale cyberattack on the US electric grid and a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event. A cyberattack severely damaging the US electric grid and allowing for recovery within a few weeks or months would lead to substantial drops in food consumption. However, it would likely still be possible to provide adequate calories to everyone, assuming that food is equitably distributed. In contrast, a year-long recovery from a HEMP event affecting most of the continental United States could precipitate a state of famine. Our analysis represents a first attempt at quantifying how food availability progressively worsens as power outages extend over time. Our open-source model is made publicly available, and we encourage its application to other catastrophic scenarios beyond those specifically considered in this work (for example, extreme solar storms, high-lethality pandemics).