Analyzing material and production costs for lithium-ion and sodium-ion batteries using process-based cost modeling - CellEst 3.0
Janik Ruppert, Philipp Voß, Lukas Ihlbrock, Jakob Palm, Simon Lux, Jens Leker
Abstract
In the face of rising demand for efficient and reliable energy storage, this study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of lithium-ion and sodium-ion batteries across pouch, prismatic, and cylindrical cell formats. Introducing CellEst 3.0, an open-source, Excel-based model offering detailed insights into material and production costs for various battery chemistries and formats, including post-lithium technologies such as sodium-ion batteries (SIBs). Our analysis shows that NMC 811 lithium-ion cells offer the highest energy density but have higher material costs due to expensive cathode active material. In contrast, the affordable LFP cathode active material provides cost advantages over NMC. SIBs, particularly those based on NaNFM 111, are the most cost-effective at $54-$62 per kWh, primarily due to cheaper anode active material and aluminum current collector foils. Prismatic cells are identified as the cost leader, supporting the industry's shift towards this format despite other technological factors. Scenario analysis suggests that SIBs withstand volatile market conditions better due to lower material price dependency. While production cost savings correlate closely with cell energy, cylindrical cells are an exception due to their manufacturing processes. This study underlines the value of detailed cost modeling in battery development and demonstrates the economic potential of sodium-ion batteries in sustainable energy storage. • Sodium-ion batteries offer a cost-effective alternative at $54-$62 per kWh. • SIBs show resilience against market volatility and material price changes. • Prismatic cells emerge as the cost leader across all formats. • NMC 811 cells lead in energy density but are the most expensive. • CellEst 3.0 provides detailed cost insights for LIBs and SIBs across all formats.