Estimated number of deaths directly averted in people 60 years and older as a result of COVID-19 vaccination in the WHO European Region, December 2020 to November 2021
Margaux M. I. Meslé, Jeremy Brown, Piers Mook, José E. Hagan, Roberta Pastore, Nick Bundle, Gianfranco Spiteri, Giovanni Ravasi, Nathalie Nicolay, Nick Andrews, Tetiana Dykhanovska, Joël Mossong, Małgorzata Sadkowska-Todys, Raina Nikiforova, Flavia Riccardo, Hinta Meijerink, Clara Mazagatos, Jan Kynčl, Jim McMenamin, Tanya Melillo, Stella Kaoustou, D Lévy-Brühl, Freek Haarhuis, Rivka Rich, Meaghan Kall, Dorit Nitzan, Catherine Smallwood, Richard Pebody
Abstract
Since December 2019, over 1.5 million SARS-CoV-2-related fatalities have been recorded in the World Health Organization European Region - 90.2% in people ≥ 60 years. We calculated lives saved in this age group by COVID-19 vaccination in 33 countries from December 2020 to November 2021, using weekly reported deaths and vaccination coverage. We estimated that vaccination averted 469,186 deaths (51% of 911,302 expected deaths; sensitivity range: 129,851-733,744; 23-62%). Impact by country ranged 6-93%, largest when implementation was early.