Assessing and predicting type 2 diabetes risk with triglyceride glucose‐body mass index in the Chinese nondiabetic population—Data from long‐term follow‐up of Da Qing <scp>IGT</scp> and Diabetes Study

Abstract

Abstract Aims We intended to characterize the superiority of triglyceride glucose‐body mass index (TyG‐BMI) in predicting type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) compared with triglyceride glucose (TyG) and homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA‐IR). Methods A total of 699 nondiabetic participants in the Da Qing IGT and Diabetes Study were involved in the present analysis and classified according to the median of baseline TyG‐BMI, namely the G1 (low TyG‐BMI) and G2 (high TyG‐BMI) groups. Information on developing diabetes was assessed from 1986 to 2020. Results During the 34‐year follow‐up, after adjustment for confounders, the G2 group had a higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes than the G1 group (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.92, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.51–2.45, p &lt; 0.0001). Restricted cubic spline analyses showed that increased TyG‐BMI was linearly related to higher risks of type 2 diabetes ( p for non‐linearity&gt;0.05). Time‐dependent receiver operator characteristics curves suggested that TyG‐BMI exhibited higher predictive ability than TyG (6‐year: area under the curve [AUC] TyG‐BMI vs. AUC TyG , 0.78 vs. 0.70, p = 0.03; 34‐year: AUC TyG‐BMI vs. AUC TyG , 0.79 vs. 0.73, p = 0.04) and HOMA‐IR (6‐year: AUC TyG‐BMI vs. AUC HOMA‐IR , 0.78 vs. 0.70, p = 0.07; 34‐year: AUC TyG‐BMI vs. AUC HOMA‐IR , 0.79 vs. 0.71, p = 0.04) in both short and long terms, and the thresholds of TyG‐BMI to predict type 2 diabetes were relatively stable (195.24–208.41) over the 34‐year follow‐up. Conclusions In this post hoc study, higher TyG‐BMI was associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes and demonstrated better predictability than TyG and HOMA‐IR, favoring the application of TyG‐BMI as a potential tool for evaluating the risk of type 2 diabetes in clinical practice. image

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