Research on Regional Logistics Demand Forecast Based on Improved Support Vector Machine: A Case Study of Qingdao City under the New Free Trade Zone Strategy
Nan Yu, Wei Xu, Kai-Li Yu
Abstract
Based on the analysis on the influencing factors of urban logistics demand, this paper, taking into account the logistics demand with non-linear and small sample modeling characteristics from the perspective of urban freight volume, introduces the ant colony algorithm into the modeling process to optimize the penalty parameter “c” and “g” parameter of Radial Basis Function in support vector machine, and has made a prediction to the logistics demand of Qingdao with the optimized support vector machine model. The experimental results show that the prediction results of the improved support vector machine can bring the prediction closer to the reality with their more accuracy, stronger stability and less error rate, thus providing a guarantee for the logistics demand forecast of Qingdao.