Implementation of ecological risk scenario simulation and driving mechanisms in typical rocky desertification regions in China: A coupling multi-model ecological assessment framework
Ruei-Yuan Wang, Guangxing Huang, Peng Zi, Taohui Li, Qifan Liang
Abstract
• A novel framework for ecological risk prediction and assessment in rocky desertification zones has been proposed and utilized. • Urban expansion has led to the degradation of ecosystem services in rocky desertification zones. • Among the four development scenarios, Guizhou Province exhibits the lowest ecological risk under the EPS scenario. • Socioeconomic factors are the primary drivers of ecological risk changes in Guizhou Province. The assessment and management of ecological risks (ER) in rocky desertification zones are crucial for fostering regional sustainable development and maintaining ecosystem stability. To improve the predictive accuracy of ER in these zones, this study introduces a novel framework for ER assessment using the GMOP-PLUS-INVEST multi-model coupling approach. This framework is employed to forecast spatial alterations in land-use and land-cover (LUCC), ecosystem services (ES), and ER in Guizhou Province for 2030 under various development scenarios. Additionally, the driving factors of ER are quantified using a random forest model (RFM). The results indicated that, across different growth projections, cultivated land, forest land, and unused land in Guizhou are on a decline, whereas grassland, construction land, and water bodies are expanding. Predictive data revealed that ES degradation is most pronounced in the comprehensive development scenario (CDS) and least severe in the ecological protection scenario (EPS). Grain yield (GY) and habitat quality (HQ) face the highest degradation risk in the CDS, while carbon storage (CS) and soil retention (SR) are at greater risk in the natural development scenarios (NDS). Further ER predictions indicated that the CDS exhibits the broadest range and intensity of ER, with economic development scenarios (EDS) and EPS shows the narrowest. The attribution results indicated that socio-economic factors have exacerbated regional ER, contributing to the further deterioration of ES in rocky desertification zones due to urban sprawl. These insights offered a theoretical basis for optimizing land use, devising effective ER prevention strategies, and bolstering regional sustainable development and rocky desertification mitigation efforts.