Empirical assessment of government policies and flattening of the <scp>COVID</scp> 19 curve
Noman Arshed, Muhammad Saeed Meo, Fatima Farooq
Abstract
The objective of the study is 2-fold. First, it estimates the 2019 new coronavirus disease (COVID19) flattening curve using Panel Random Coefficient Model. This allows each country to have its trajectory while allowing for random error effects to transfer across countries. Second, it calculates the expected number of days to reach the flattening point of COVID19 curve and estimate the empirical effectiveness of government policies around the world using Poisson regression. This study avails global COVID19 incidence data for 190 countries between January 22, 2020 and May 11, 2020. In the absence of a vaccine or of more appropriate treatment options, non-pharmaceutical approaches must be used to control the spread of the COVID19. This study proposed that the contact tracing, stay at home restrictions and international movement restrictions are most effective in controlling the spread and flattening the COIVD19 curve. At the same time, habits that hurt the immune system like smoking have a negative effect on the flattening of the curve. The government should integrate these policies in their lockdown plan to make it smart lockdown.