Differential impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions on the epidemiological dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus subtypes A and B
Inga Holmdahl, Samantha J. Bents, Rachel E. Baker, Jean‐Sébastien Casalegno, Nídia S. Trovão, Sang Woo Park, Jessica Metcalf, Cécile Viboud, Bryan T. Grenfell
Abstract
Abstract Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic have disrupted the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) on a global scale; however, the cycling of RSV subtypes in the pre- and post-pandemic period remains poorly understood. Here, we used a two subtype RSV model supplemented with epidemiological data to study the impact of NPIs on the two circulating subtypes, RSV-A and RSV-B. The model is calibrated to historic RSV subtype data from the United Kingdom and Finland and predicts a tendency for RSV-A dominance over RSV-B immediately following the implementation of NPIs. Using a global genetic dataset, we confirm that RSV-A has prevailed over RSV-B in the post-pandemic period, consistent with a higher R 0 for RSV-A. With new RSV infant monoclonals and maternal and elderly vaccines becoming widely available, these results may have important implications for understanding intervention effectiveness in the context of disrupted subtype dynamics.