A Multiscale Approach to Shoreline Prediction
Jennifer Montaño, Giovanni Coco, Laura Cagigal, Fernando J. Méndez, Ana Rueda, Karin R. Bryan, Mitchell D. Harley
Abstract
Abstract Shorelines respond to a number of “drivers” operating on a variety of time‐scales. For some time‐scales (e.g., seasonal), the driver‐shoreline relationship is often evident; however, at longer time‐scales (e.g., multiannual), the shoreline changes may be superimposed on changes at shorter time‐scales and thus are difficult to identify. Here, we predict shoreline evolution from storm events to decadal time‐scales, using a novel approach based on the Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition. This approach identifies and links the primary time‐scales in the model drivers (large‐scale sea level pressure [SLP] and/or waves) with the same time‐scales in the shoreline position. The multiscale approach reproduced shoreline changes at two beaches more skillfully than a common shoreline model when SLP and wave information were used in combination. In addition, the analysis can be applied to climate indices, providing the opportunity to link longer time‐scales with climate patterns (e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation).