Evaluating the impact of minimum unit pricing (MUP) on off‐trade alcohol sales in Scotland: an interrupted time–series study
Mark Robinson, Daniel Mackay, Lucie Giles, Jim Lewsey, Elizabeth Richardson, Clare Beeston
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: On 1 May 2018, Scotland became the first country in the world to introduce minimum unit pricing (MUP), a strength-based floor price below which alcohol cannot be sold, across all alcoholic beverages. The legislation contains a sunset clause meaning a comprehensive mixed-methods evaluation of its impact across a range of outcomes will inform whether it will continue beyond its sixth year. In this study, we assessed the impact of MUP on off-trade alcohol sales (as a proxy for consumption) after its first year. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Controlled interrupted time-series regression was used to assess the impact of MUP on alcohol sales among off-trade retailers in Scotland in the year after it was introduced, with England and Wales (EW) being the control group. In adjusted analyses, we included household disposable income, on-trade alcohol sales and substitution between beverage categories as covariates. MEASUREMENTS: Weekly data on the volume of pure alcohol sold by off-trade retailers in Scotland and EW between January 2013 and May 2019, expressed as litres of pure alcohol per adult. FINDINGS: The introduction of MUP in Scotland was associated with a 3.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.2-4.9%] reduction in off-trade alcohol sales per adult after adjustment for the best available geographical control, disposable income and substitution. In unadjusted analysis, the introduction of MUP was associated with a 2.0% (95% CI = 0.4-3.6%) reduction in off-trade alcohol sales per adult in Scotland. In EW, there was a 2.4% (95% CI = 0.8-4.0%) increase during the same time-period. The reduction in off-trade alcohol sales in Scotland was driven by reduced sales of spirits, cider and perry beverage categories. CONCLUSION: The implementation of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in Scotland in 2018 appears to have been associated with a reduction in off-trade alcohol sales after its first year.