Evolution of operational extended range forecast system of IMD : Prospects of its applications in different sectors
D. R. Pattanaik, A. K. Sahai, Raju Mandal, R. Muralikrishna, Avijit Dey, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Susmitha Joseph, Amar Deep Tiwari, Vimal Mishra
Abstract
The evolution of operational extended range forecast (ERF) system of IMD starting from use of empirical models, dynamic models and the Multi-model Ensemble (MME) from 2009 to 2016 till the operational implementation of fully coupled model in 2016 is discussed. The coupled model implemented in IMD is the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). The performance of ERF for southwest monsoon, northeast monsoon, cyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and maximum and minimum temperature during the period from 2009 to 2018 have been discussed along with its prospects of its application in different sectors like, agriculture, hydrology, health, power etc. are also analysed.