Dynamics of SIQR epidemic model with fractional order derivative

Subrata Paul, Animesh Mahata, Supriya Mukherjee, Banamali Roy

2021Partial Differential Equations in Applied Mathematics43 citationsDOI Open Access PDF

Abstract

The dynamics of COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease-2019) transmission are described using a fractional order SIQR model. The stability analysis of the model is performed. To obtain semi-analytic solutions to the model, the Iterative Laplace Transform Method [ILTM] is implemented. Real-time data from COVID-19 cases in India and Brazil is employed to estimate the parameters of the fractional order SIQR model. Numerical solutions obtained using Adam–Bashforth–Moultonpredictor–corrector technique is compared with those obtained by ILTM. It is observed that the fractional order of the derivatives is more effective in studying the dynamics of the spread of COVID-19 in comparison to integral order of the SIQR model.

Topics & Concepts

Laplace transformFractional calculusApplied mathematicsOrder (exchange)Derivative (finance)MathematicsEpidemic modelStability (learning theory)Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Dynamics (music)Mathematical analysisComputer sciencePhysicsMedicinePopulationEconomicsInfectious disease (medical specialty)AcousticsMachine learningFinanceFinancial economicsDiseaseEnvironmental healthPathologyFractional Differential Equations SolutionsMathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology ModelsAdvanced Control Systems Design