User Base Estimation Methodology for a Business Airport Shuttle Air Taxi Service
Satadru Roy, Mark T. Kotwicz Herniczek, Brian German, Laurie A. Garrow
Abstract
This paper presents a methodology to estimate the potential user base of a business airport shuttle service operated by electric vertical takeoff and landing air taxis. The user base of the air taxi service is estimated using a discrete choice model that estimates the probability an individual will use the air taxi service given his/her income level and the time savings compared to driving. Air taxi flights are presumed to originate at existing heliports and regional airports with major hub airports as destinations. Data from the U.S. census are used to determine where likely passengers for the service live and work, and comparisons of flight time to drive time are made based on a turn-by-turn driving directions routing algorithm. The proposed methodology is applied to the New York City, Los Angeles, and Atlanta metropolitan areas to identify hot spots of the potential user base in these regions. Analysis of these regions suggests that near-term electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft may be able to significantly increase the expected user base when compared with present-day helicopters flying the same mission. An analysis of the impact of the assumptions used in the methodology is conducted; and tradeoff studies to illustrate sensitivity of the user base prediction to vehicle design range, payload, and cruise speed are presented.