On the importance of population-based serological surveys of SARS-CoV-2 without overlooking their inherent uncertainties
Evangelos I. Kritsotakis
Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has caused an unprecedented public health situation and more than ever it is important to be well informed on methods to monitor and analyse the progression of the epidemic. This brief note aims to explain the scope in conducting large-scale serological surveys of SARS-CoV-2 to define the landscape of population immunity, without overlooking the inherent uncertainty steaming from sampling design and diagnostic validity. The note completes with a succinct appendix of simple statistical methods for estimating prevalence from random population samples using imperfect diagnostic tests.
Topics & Concepts
PopulationCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Scale (ratio)Sampling (signal processing)GeographyImperfectSerology2019-20 coronavirus outbreakPublic healthStatisticsComputer scienceEnvironmental healthVirologyMedicineMathematicsCartographyImmunologyInfectious disease (medical specialty)DiseaseOutbreakAntibodyPhilosophyFilter (signal processing)Computer visionLinguisticsNursingPathologySARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 ResearchCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesSARS-CoV-2 detection and testing