Causal effect analysis of logistics processes risks in manufacturing industries using sequential multi-stage fuzzy cognitive map: a case study
Samuel Yousefı, Mustafa Jahangoshai Rezaee, Armin Moradi
Abstract
Any shortage and deviation in the implementation of logistics processes can lead to a poor performance and losing the market share of the manufacturer. To overcome this problem, the identification of existing risks in all logistics sub-processes, and taking corrective/preventive measures, is of great importance. In this study, a risk prioritization approach is presented based on a sequential multi-stage fuzzy cognitive map (SMFCM) and process failure mode and effects analysis (PFMEA) to prioritize logistics processes risks. This approach, in addition to considering a process-oriented view, prioritizes the logistics risks according to the amount of each risk’s impact on other risks through the internal and external-stage causal relationships as well as the values of risk factors. The score obtained from this approach can create enough distinction among the priorities of different risks in comparison with conventional risk priority number (RPN). Also, the results based on this score have a lower dependency on experts’ opinions by applying the Extended Delta Rule (EDR) learning algorithm. In fact, the intelligent nature of this approach enables decision-makers to identify critical risks and examine the status of the system at any time. The results of the implementation of the SMFCM-PFMEA approach in a manufacturing company active in the automotive spare parts industry confirm the superiority of this compared with the conventional score.