Analysis of the potential resource, environmental and economic impacts of EU battery and waste battery regulations on China's lithium-ion battery industry
Min Liu, Wei Liu, Mingyue Zhang, Xin Pan, Qian Zhang, Mingxue Zhang, Tengyun Ma, Zhaojie Cui
Abstract
Meeting the EU's recycled content (RC) targets and carbon footprint (CF) thresholds poses a significant challenge for China, yet limited research has addressed this issue. This study quantifies the impacts of these requirements on China's lithium-ion battery (LIB) industry from resource, environmental, and economic perspectives. Under the Export-Oriented Priority Allocation strategy, China can meet the RC targets effectively. Due to varying levels of grid decarbonization, the ranking of LIB CFs across different countries is: EU < US < South Korea < Japan < China, putting China at high risk of EU market exclusion. By signing Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) worth $78.0 million, China could align its LIB CFs with those of South Korea and Japan . If China's official electricity CF were recognized by the EU, this cost would decrease to $50.5 million. China must accelerate mutual recognition of electricity CFs or explore direct green power supply to mitigate export risks.