Linking key intervention timing to rapid decline of the COVID-19 effective reproductive number to quantify lessons from mainland China
Yanni Xiao, Biao Tang, Jianhong Wu, Robert Cheke, Sanyi Tang
Abstract
Effective reproductive numbers (Rt) were calculated from data on the COVID-19 outbreak in China and linked to dates in 2020 when different interventions were enacted. From a maximum of 3.98 before the lockdown in Wuhan City, the values of Rt declined to below 1 by the second week of February, after the construction of hospitals dedicated to COVID-19 patients. The Rt continued to decline following additional measures in line with the policy of “early detection, early report, early quarantine, and early treatment.” The results provide quantitative evaluations of how intervention measures and their timings succeeded, from which lessons can be learned by other countries dealing with future outbreaks.