COVID-19: risk factors for severe cases of the Delta variant
Kaiyuan Hu, Lin Liu, Ying Liang, Xinning Shao, Zhongwei Hu, Hongbin Luo, Ming Lei
Abstract
Background: Since April 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 (B.1.167) Delta variant has been rampant worldwide. Recently, this variant has spread in Guangzhou, China. Our objective was to characterize the clinical features and risk factors of severe cases of the Delta variant in Guangzhou. Methods: A total of 144 patients with the Delta variant were enrolled, and the data between the severe and non-severe groups were compared. Logistic regression methods and Cox multivariate regression analysis were used to investigate the risk factors of severe cases. Results: The severity of the Delta variant was 11.1%. Each 1-year increase in age (OR, 1.089; 95% CI, 1.035â1.147; P = 0.001) and each 1-μmol/L increase in total bilirubin (OR, 1.198; 95% CI, 1.021â1.406; P = 0.039) were risk factors for severe cases. Moreover, the risk of progression to severe cases increased 13.444-fold and 3.922-fold when the age was greater than 58.5 years (HR, 13.444; 95% CI, 2.989â60.480; P = 0.001) or the total bilirubin level was greater than 7.23 μmol/L (HR, 3.922; 95% CI, 1.260â12.207; P = 0.018), respectively. Conclusion: Older age and elevated total bilirubin were independent risk factors for severe cases of the Delta variant in Guangzhou, especially if the age was greater than 58.5 years or the total bilirubin level was greater than 7.23 μmol/L.