Immunological predictors of disease severity in patients with COVID-19
Asma Al Balushi, Jalila Alshekaili, Mahmood Al Kindi, Zainab Ansari, Murtadha Al‐Khabori, Faryal Khamis, Zaiyana Ambusaidi, Afra Al Balushi, Aisha Al Huraizi, Sumaiya Al Sulaimi, Fatma Al Fahdi, Iman Al Balushi, Nenad Pandak, Tom Fletcher, Iman Nasr
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Identifying the immune cells involved in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disease progression and the predictors of poor outcomes is important to manage patients adequately. METHODS: This prospective observational cohort study enrolled 48 patients with COVID-19 hospitalized in a tertiary hospital in Oman and 53 non-hospitalized patients with confirmed mild COVID-19. RESULTS: Hospitalized patients were older (58 years vs 36 years, P < 0.001) and had more comorbid conditions such as diabetes (65% vs 21% P < 0.001). Hospitalized patients had significantly higher inflammatory markers (P < 0.001): C-reactive protein (114 vs 4 mg/l), interleukin 6 (IL-6) (33 vs 3.71 pg/ml), lactate dehydrogenase (417 vs 214 U/l), ferritin (760 vs 196 ng/ml), fibrinogen (6 vs 3 g/l), D-dimer (1.0 vs 0.3 μg/ml), disseminated intravascular coagulopathy score (2 vs 0), and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (4 vs 1.1) (P < 0.001). On multivariate regression analysis, statistically significant independent early predictors of intensive care unit admission or death were higher levels of IL-6 (odds ratio 1.03, P = 0.03), frequency of large inflammatory monocytes (CD14+CD16+) (odds ratio 1.117, P = 0.010), and frequency of circulating naïve CD4+ T cells (CD27+CD28+CD45RA+CCR7+) (odds ratio 0.476, P = 0.03). CONCLUSION: IL-6, the frequency of large inflammatory monocytes, and the frequency of circulating naïve CD4 T cells can be used as independent immunological predictors of poor outcomes in COVID-19 patients to prioritize critical care and resources.