Long-Term Forecast of HIV/AIDS Epidemic in China with Fear Effect and 90-90-90 Strategies
Ling Xue, Kai Zhang, Hao Wang
Abstract
We formulate a compartmental model considering behavioral changes of susceptible individuals due to fear to assess the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS in mainland China. Stability and uniform persistence are analyzed. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations and Latin hypercube sampling are used to estimate the basic reproduction number and its sensitivity to parameter variations. The estimated mean reproduction number is 1.2138 (95% CI 1.0834–1.3442). The basic reproduction numbers of aware susceptible individuals and high-risk susceptible individuals are $$5.6776 \times {10^{-10}}$$ (95% CI $$4.7883\times {10^{{-10}}}$$ – $$6.7039 \times {10^{{-10}}}$$ ) and 1.2138 (95% CI 1.0834–1.3442), respectively. Global sensitivity analysis shows that preventive measures are more effective than post-infection measures in eliminating the epidemic. We incorporate 90-90-90 strategies to predict the new HIV/AIDS cases in China in the next few decades, and the results show that it takes at least 26 years to achieve the goal of zero new HIV/AIDS cases.