Impact of drought on global food security by 2050
Vachel A. Carter, Kirsten Paff, Darin Comeau, Kurt Solander, Travis Pitts, Stephen Price, Chonggang Xu
Abstract
Drought is a major driver of crop production loss, threatening global food security as the population rises toward 9 billion by 2050. Using a process-based crop model within an Earth system model, we assess drought-related impacts on maize, soybean, rice, and wheat production at global and country levels. We then develop a food insecurity index combining drought impacts with socio-economic factors. Our results indicate that by 2050, globally averaged drought losses for combined maize, soybean, rice, and wheat production are <2%, though soybean losses reach 3.6%. Despite these small average changes at the global scale, 62 countries experience maximum production losses over 10%, and 24 countries over 20%. Our index identifies regions at greatest risk, including large parts of South America, Africa, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia. These results illustrate the need for drought adaptation to mitigate future drought impacts on crop production. This study examined the impacts of drought on future global staple crop production and how drought and socio-economic factors may impact individual countries’ food security. Although drought has a small impact on global mean production, some countries may face drought-related production losses exceeding 20%.