Preliminary estimation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Iran: A modelling analysis based on overseas cases and air travel data
Zian Zhuang, Shi Zhao, Qianying Lin, Peihua Cao, Yijun Lou, Lin Yang, Daihai He
Abstract
As of March 1, 2020, Iran had reported 987 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases, including 54 associated deaths. At least six neighboring countries (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) had reported imported COVID-19 cases from Iran. In this study, air travel data and the numbers of cases from Iran imported into other Middle Eastern countries were used to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases in Iran. It was estimated that the total number of cases in Iran was 16 533 (95% confidence interval: 5925-35 538) by February 25, 2020, before the UAE and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries suspended inbound and outbound flights from Iran.
Topics & Concepts
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Confidence interval2019-20 coronavirus outbreakEstimationSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)GeographyCoronavirusSocioeconomicsSouthern IranMedicineInfectious disease (medical specialty)DiseaseOutbreakVirologyEngineeringEconomicsSystems engineeringLiteratureInternal medicinePathologyArtCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesCOVID-19 Pandemic ImpactsCOVID-19 impact on air quality