Warmer weather unlikely to reduce the COVID-19 transmission: An ecological study in 202 locations in 8 countries
Jinhua Pan, Ye Yao, Zhixi Liu, Xia Meng, John S. Ji, Yang Qiu, Weidong Wang, Lina Zhang, Weibing Wang, Haidong Kan
Abstract
To examine the association between meteorological factors (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and UV radiation) and transmission capacity of COVID-19. We collected daily numbers of COVID-19 cases in 202 locations in 8 countries. We matched meteorological data from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. We used a time-frequency approach to examine the possible association between meteorological conditions and basic reproductive number (R0) of COVID-19. We determined the correlations between meteorological factors and R0 of COVID-19 using multiple linear regression models and meta-analysis. We further validated our results using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) metapopulation model to simulate the changes of daily cases of COVID-19 in China under different temperatures and relative humidity conditions. Temperature did not exhibit significant association with R0 of COVID-19 (meta p = 0.446). Also, relative humidity (meta p = 0.215), wind speed (meta p = 0.986), and ultraviolet (UV) radiation (meta p = 0.491) were not significantly associated with R0 either. The SEIR model in China showed that with a wide range of meteorological conditions, the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases would not change substantially. Meteorological conditions did not have statistically significant associations with the R0 of COVID-19. Warmer weather alone seems unlikely to reduce the COVID-19 transmission.