Low-carbon scenarios for long-distance travel 2060
Jonas Åkerman, Anneli Kamb, Jörgen Larsson, Jonas Nässén
Abstract
In many industrialised countries, the climate impact from long-distance travel is greater than that from short-distance travel. In this paper, we present five scenarios for long-distance travel in 2060, which are consistent with a 67% probability of limiting global warming to 1.8 degrees. The scenarios concern travel by the Swedish population, but per capita travel volume and fuel use could be generalised globally. A key result is that all scenarios require reductions in Swedish per capita air travel in the range of 38–59% compared to 2017. The direct effect on air travel of implementing a high-speed rail network in Sweden and Northern Europe was found to be modest. A higher emission reduction could be achieved if mixed mode trips comprising rail and air legs were more widely adopted. Finally, the pros and cons of future aviation fuels are discussed, the main candidates being biofuel, electrofuel, and liquid hydrogen.