Machine Learning-Based Short-Term Forecasting of Significant Wave Height During Typhoons Using SWAN Data: A Case Study in the Pearl River Estuary
Mengdi Ma, Guoliang Chen, Sudong Xu, Weikai Tan, Kai Yin
Abstract
Accurate wave forecasting under typhoon conditions is essential for coastal safety in the Pearl River Estuary. This study explores the use of Random Forest (RF) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models to predict significant wave heights, using SWAN-simulated data from 87 historical typhoon events. Ten representative typhoons were reserved for independent testing. Results show that the LSTM model outperforms RF in 3 h forecasts, achieving a lower mean RMSE and higher R2, particularly in capturing wave peaks under highly dynamic conditions. For 6 h forecasts, both models exhibit decreased accuracy, with RF performing slightly better in stable scenarios, while LSTM remains more responsive in complex wave evolution. Generalization tests at three nearby stations demonstrate that both models, especially LSTM, retain strong predictive skill beyond the training location. These findings highlight the potential of combining numerical wave models with machine learning for short-term, data-driven wave forecasting in typhoon-prone and observation-sparse regions. The study also points to future improvements through integration of wind field predictors, model updating strategies, and ensemble meteorological data.