An improved SIR model describing the epidemic dynamics of the COVID-19 in China
Wenjing Zhu, Shoufeng Shen
Abstract
In this letter, an improved SIR (ISIR) model is proposed, to analyze the spread of COVID-19 during the time window 21/01/2020-08/02/2021. The parameters can be extracted from an inverse problem of the ISIR to assess the risk of COVID-19. This study identifies that the cure rate is 0.05 and the reproduction number is 0.4490 during the time interval. The prediction values demonstrates high similarity to the reported data. The results indicate that the disease had been under control in China.
Topics & Concepts
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Epidemic model2019-20 coronavirus outbreakInterval (graph theory)Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Similarity (geometry)ChinaStatisticsBasic reproduction numberCure rateDemographyMathematicsComputer scienceMedicineVirologyInternal medicineDiseaseArtificial intelligenceGeographyOutbreakCombinatoricsInfectious disease (medical specialty)Environmental healthPopulationImage (mathematics)ArchaeologySociologyCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesCOVID-19 Pandemic ImpactsSARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research