Assessment of Coastal Zone Vulnerability in Context of Sea-Level Rise and Inundation Risk in Qatar
Abdulaziz Ali M. Al-Mannai, Sarra Ouerghi, Mohamed Elhag
Abstract
Coastal zones represent the most active interfaces where natural processes and human activities converge, making them crucial for biodiversity and socioeconomic development. These zones are characterized by their fragility and susceptibility to frequent natural disasters, such as floods and erosion, which are exacerbated by high-intensity human activities and urban expansion. The ongoing challenges posed by rising sea levels and climate change necessitate robust scientific assessments of coastal vulnerability to ensure effective disaster prevention and environmental protection. This paper introduces a comprehensive evaluation system for assessing coastal zone vulnerability, utilizing multi-source data to address ecological vulnerabilities stemming from sea-level rise and climate change impacts. This system is applied to examine the specific case of Qatar, where rapid urban development and a high population density in coastal areas heighten the risk of flooding and inundation. Employing remote sensing data and Geographic Information Systems (GISs), this research leverages spatial interpolation techniques and high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) to identify and evaluate high-risk zones susceptible to sea-level rise. In this study, the hydrological connectivity model, bathtub technique, and CVI are interconnected tools that complement each other to assess future flooding risks under various climate change projections, highlighting the increased probability of coastal hazards. The findings underscore the urgent need for adaptive planning and regulatory frameworks to mitigate these risks, providing technical support for the sustainable development of coastal communities globally and in Qatar. This approach not only informs policy makers, but also aids in the strategic planning required to foster resilient coastal infrastructure capable of withstanding both current and future environmental challenges.