A Mathematical Model for the COVID-19 Outbreak and Its Applications
Roman Cherniha, Vasyl’ Davydovych
Abstract
A mathematical model based on nonlinear ordinary differential equations is proposed for quantitative description of the outbreak of the novel coronavirus pandemic. The model possesses remarkable properties, such as as full integrability. The comparison with the public data shows that exact solutions of the model (with the correctly specified parameters) lead to the results, which are in good agreement with the measured data in China and Austria. Prediction of the total number of the COVID-19 cases is discussed and examples are presented using the measured data in Austria, France, and Poland. Some generalizations of the model are suggested as well.
Topics & Concepts
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)OutbreakPandemicApplied mathematics2019-20 coronavirus outbreakSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Mathematical modelCoronavirusOrdinary differential equationNonlinear systemComputer scienceMathematicsEconometricsDifferential equationStatisticsMathematical analysisVirologyPhysicsInfectious disease (medical specialty)MedicineDiseaseBiologyQuantum mechanicsPathologyCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesMathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models