Postmortem metabolomics as a high-throughput cause-of-death screening tool for human death investigations
Liam J. Ward, Sara Kling, Gustav Engvall, Carl Söderberg, Fredrik C. Kugelberg, Henrik Gréen, Albert Elmsjö
Abstract
Autopsy rates are declining globally, impacting cause-of-death (CoD) diagnoses and quality control. Postmortem metabolomics was evaluated for CoD screening using 4,282 human cases, encompassing CoD groups: acidosis, drug intoxication, hanging, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and pneumonia. Cases were split 3:1 into training and test sets. High-resolution mass spectrometry data from femoral blood were analyzed via orthogonal-partial least squares discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA) to discriminate CoD groups. OPLS-DA achieved an R2 = 0.52 and Q2 = 0.30, with true-positive prediction rates of 68% and 65% for training and test sets, respectively, across all groups. Specificity-optimized thresholds predicted 56% of test cases with a unique CoD, average 45% sensitivity, and average 96% specificity. Prediction accuracies varied: 98.7% for acidosis, 80.5% for drug intoxication, 81.6% for hanging, 73.1% for IHD, and 93.6% for pneumonia. This study demonstrates the potential of large-scale postmortem metabolomics for CoD screening, offering high specificity and enhancing throughput and decision-making in human death investigations.