COVID-19 vaccination, risk-compensatory behaviours, and contacts in the UK
John Buckell, Joel W. Jones, Philippa C. Matthews, Sir Ian Diamond, Emma Rourke, Ruth Studley, Duncan Cook, A. Sarah Walker, Koen B. Pouwels, the COVID-19 Infection Survey Team, Tina Thomas, Daniel Ayoubkhani, Russell Black, Antonio Felton, Megan Crees, Joel W. Jones, Lina Lloyd, Esther Sutherland, Emma Pritchard, Karina-Doris Vihta, George Doherty, James Kavanagh, Kevin Chau, Stephanie B. Hatch, Daniel Ebner, Lucas Martins Ferreira, Thomas Christott, Wanwisa Dejnirattisai, Juthathip Mongkolsapaya, Sarah Cameron, Phoebe Tamblin-Hopper, Magda Wolna, Rachael Brown, Richard J. Cornall, Gavin Screaton, Stuart Cox, Kevin Paddon, Tim James, Thomas House, Julie V. Robotham, Paul Birrell, Helena Jordan, Tim Sheppard, Graham Athey, Dan Moody, Leigh Curry, Pamela Brereton, Ian Jarvis, Anna Godsmark, George Morris, Bobby Mallick, Phil Eeles, Jodie Hay, Harper VanSteenhouse, Jessica Lee, Sean White, Tim Evans, Lisa Bloemberg, Katie Allison, Anouska Pandya, Sophie Davis, David I. Conway, Margaret MacLeod, Chris Cunningham, Katrina Lythgoe, David Bonsall, Tanya Golubchik, Helen Fryer
Abstract
The physiological effects of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) are well documented, yet the behavioural effects not well known. Risk compensation suggests that gains in personal safety, as a result of vaccination, are offset by increases in risky behaviour, such as socialising, commuting and working outside the home. This is potentially important because transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is driven by contacts, which could be amplified by vaccine-related risk compensation. Here, we show that behaviours were overall unrelated to personal vaccination, but-adjusting for variation in mitigation policies-were responsive to the level of vaccination in the wider population: individuals in the UK were risk compensating when rates of vaccination were rising. This effect was observed across four nations of the UK, each of which varied policies autonomously.