Modeling and optimal control analysis of transmission dynamics of COVID-19: The case of Ethiopia
Chernet Tuge Deressa, Gemechis File Duressa
Abstract
A mathematical model to estimate transmission dynamics of COVID-19 is developed. A real data of confirmed cases for Ethiopia is used for parameter estimation via model fitting. Results showed that, the diseases free and endemic equilibrium points are found to be locally and globally asymptotically stable for Ro < 1 and Ro > 1 respectively. The basic reproduction number is Ro = 1.5085. Optimal control analysis also showed that, combination of optimal preventive strategies such as public health education, personal protective measures and treatment of hospitalized cases are effective to significantly decrease the number of COVID-19 cases in different compartments of the model.
Topics & Concepts
Basic reproduction numberCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Transmission (telecommunications)MathematicsControl (management)EstimationDynamics (music)Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Stability theoryStatistics2019-20 coronavirus outbreakApplied mathematicsControl theory (sociology)EconometricsMathematical optimizationComputer scienceMedicineEngineeringVirologyEnvironmental healthArtificial intelligenceOutbreakInternal medicineDiseasePsychologyPedagogyPopulationQuantum mechanicsInfectious disease (medical specialty)Nonlinear systemSystems engineeringPhysicsTelecommunicationsCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesMathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology ModelsSARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research