Machine Learning–Based Personalized Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Radiofrequency Ablation
Masaya Sato, Ryosuke Tateishi, Makoto Moriyama, Tsuyoshi Fukumoto, Tomoharu Yamada, Ryo Nakagomi, Mizuki Nishibatake Kinoshita, T. Nakatsuka, Tatsuya Minami, Koji Uchino, Kenichiro Enooku, Hayato Nakagawa, Shuichiro Shiina, Kota Ninomiya, Satoshi Kodera, Yutaka Yatomi, Kazuhiko Koike
Abstract
Background and AimsRadiofrequency ablation (RFA) is a widely accepted, minimally invasive treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to develop a machine learning (ML) model to predict the risk of HCC recurrence after RFA treatment for individual patients.MethodsWe included a total of 1778 patients with treatment-naïve HCC who underwent RFA. The cumulative probability of overall recurrence after the initial RFA treatment was 78.9% and 88.0% at 5 and 10 years, respectively. We developed a conventional Cox proportional hazard model and 6 ML models—including the deep learning–based DeepSurv model. Model performance was evaluated using Harrel’s c-index and was validated externally using the split-sample method.ResultsThe gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) model achieved the best performance with a c-index of 0.67 from external validation, and it showed a high discriminative ability in stratifying the external validation sample into 2, 3, and 4 different risk groups (P < .001 among all risk groups). The c-index of DeepSurv was 0.64. In order of significance, the tumor number, serum albumin level, and des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin level were the most important variables for the prediction of HCC recurrence in the GBDT model. Also, the current GBDT model enabled the output of a personalized cumulative recurrence prediction curve for each patient.ConclusionWe developed a novel ML model for the personalized risk prediction of HCC recurrence after RFA treatment. The current model may lead to the personalization of effective follow-up strategies after RFA treatment according to the risk stratification of HCC recurrence. Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is a widely accepted, minimally invasive treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to develop a machine learning (ML) model to predict the risk of HCC recurrence after RFA treatment for individual patients. We included a total of 1778 patients with treatment-naïve HCC who underwent RFA. The cumulative probability of overall recurrence after the initial RFA treatment was 78.9% and 88.0% at 5 and 10 years, respectively. We developed a conventional Cox proportional hazard model and 6 ML models—including the deep learning–based DeepSurv model. Model performance was evaluated using Harrel’s c-index and was validated externally using the split-sample method. The gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) model achieved the best performance with a c-index of 0.67 from external validation, and it showed a high discriminative ability in stratifying the external validation sample into 2, 3, and 4 different risk groups (P < .001 among all risk groups). The c-index of DeepSurv was 0.64. In order of significance, the tumor number, serum albumin level, and des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin level were the most important variables for the prediction of HCC recurrence in the GBDT model. Also, the current GBDT model enabled the output of a personalized cumulative recurrence prediction curve for each patient. We developed a novel ML model for the personalized risk prediction of HCC recurrence after RFA treatment. The current model may lead to the personalization of effective follow-up strategies after RFA treatment according to the risk stratification of HCC recurrence.