Climatological Statistics of Extreme Geomagnetic Fluctuations With Periods From 1 s to 60 min
Neil Rogers, J. A. Wild, Emma Eastoe, Juliane Hübert
Abstract
Abstract Using a global database of 125 magnetometers covering several decades, we present occurrence statistics for fluctuations of the horizontal geomagnetic field ( dB h / dt ) exceeding the 99.97th percentile ( P 99.97 ) for both ramp changes ( R n ) and the root‐mean‐square ( S n ) of fluctuations over periods, τ , from 1 to 60 min and describe their variation with geomagnetic latitude and magnetic local time (MLT). Rates of exceedance are explained by reference to the magneto‐ionospheric processes dominant in different latitude and MLT sectors, including ULF waves, interplanetary shocks, auroral substorm currents, and traveling convection vortices. By fitting generalized Pareto tail distributions above P 99.97 , we predict return levels (RLs) for R n and S n over return periods of between 5 and 500 years. P 99.97 and RLs increase monotonically with frequency (1/ τ ) (with a few exceptions at auroral latitudes) and this is well modeled by quadratic functions whose coefficients vary smoothly with latitude. For UK magnetometers providing 1‐s cadence measurements, the analysis is extended to cover periods from 1 to 60 s and empirical Magnetotelluric Transfer functions are used to predict percentiles and return levels of the geoelectric field over a wide frequency range (2 × 10 −4 to 4 × 10 −2 Hz) assuming a sinusoidal field fluctuation. These results help identify the principal causes of field fluctuations leading to extreme geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in ground infrastructure over a range of timescales and they inform the choice of frequency dependence to use with dB h / dt as a GIC proxy.