Quantitative risk assessment of speech acts and lexical factors in maritime communication failures and accidents
Jingbo Yin, Rafi Ullah Khan, Muhammad Afzaal, Hamed M. Almalki, Mohamad Ahmad Saleem Khasawneh, Saleh Al Sulaie
Abstract
• Speech acts and lexical factors drive 37.77 % of maritime accident risk. • Lexical ambiguity increases accident risk by 81.81 % in sensitivity analysis. • Simultaneous ambiguity and SMCP misalignment nearly double accident risk. • BN model reveals expression clarity contributes 70 % risk in locutionary acts. • VDR-based analysis offers quantitative model of miscommunication risk. Maritime transportation plays a critical role in global trade, yet human factors, particularly communication-related issues, are major contributors to maritime accidents. Despite the wealth of data available on maritime accidents, there remains a significant gap in quantitative risk assessments for speech acts and lexical factors influencing miscommunication in such incidents. This study aims to fill this gap by conducting a quantitative risk assessment of speech act and lexical factors in miscommunication-induced maritime accidents. Using data extracted from Voyage Data Recorder (VDR) communication recordings for 429 accidents and near misses between 2018 and 2023, this research employs a Bayesian network (BN) model to analyze the probabilistic relationships among key communication-related factors and their impact on accident risk. Predictive analysis reveals that miscommunication arising from speech acts and lexical factors accounts for a 37.77 % probability of accidents, with near misses and vulnerable situations at 62.33 %. Locutionary acts emerged as the highest contributors, driven by expression clarity (70 %), followed by perlocutionary acts and illocutionary acts. Diagnostic analysis further highlights the heightened sensitivity of lexical ambiguity and Standard Maritime Communication Phrases (SMCP) alignment, demonstrating substantial probability shifts under accident conditions. Sequential and simultaneous analyses underline the synergistic effects of lexical ambiguity and SMCP alignment, which nearly double accident probabilities when combined. Sensitivity analysis identifies lexical ambiguity as the most influential variable, with an 81.81 % change in accident risk between its minimum and maximum values. This research underscores the criticality of addressing speech act clarity, lexical precision, and SMCP adherence in maritime operations, offering actionable insights for enhancing communication protocols, training, and operational safety in the maritime domain.