Adaptation to multi-meter sea-level rise should start now
Gonéri Le Cozannet, Robert J. Nicholls, G. Durand, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Daniël Lincke, Anne Chapuis
Abstract
Sea-level rise will fundamentally change coastal zones worldwide. A global two meters rise of sea level will be exceeded sooner or later within a time window ranging from one century to as long as two millennia, depending on future greenhouse gas emissions and polar ice-sheet melting. Here, we show that in addition to climate mitigation to slow the rise, adaptation to two meters of sea-level rise should start now. This involves changing our mindset to define a strategic vision for these threatened coastal areas and identify realistic pathways to achieve this vision. This can reduce damages, losses, and lock-ins in the future, identify problems before they become critical and exploit opportunities if they emerge. To meet this challenge, it is essential that coastal adaptation becomes core to coastal development, especially for long-lived critical infrastructure. Coastal adaptation will be an ongoing process for many decades and centuries, requiring the support of climate services, which make the links between science, policy and adaptation practice.