Extending susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible epidemics to allow for gradual waning of immunity
Mohamed El Khalifi, Tom Britton
Abstract
Susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) epidemic models assume that individual immunity wanes in one leap, from complete immunity to complete susceptibility. For many diseases immunity on the contrary wanes gradually, something that has become even more evident during COVID-19 pandemic where also recently infected have a reinfection risk, and booster vaccines are given to increase immunity. Here, a novel mathematical model is presented allowing for the gradual decay of immunity following linear or exponential waning functions. The two new models and the SIRS model are compared assuming all three models have the same cumulative immunity. When no intervention is put in place, we find that the long-term prevalence is higher for the models with gradual waning. If aiming for herd immunity by continuous vaccination, it is shown that larger vaccine quantities are required when immunity wanes gradually compared with results obtained from the SIRS model, and this difference is the biggest for the most realistic assumption of exponentially waning of immunity. For parameter choices fitting to COVID-19, the critical amount of vaccine supply is about 50% higher if immunity wanes linearly, and more than 150% higher when immunity wanes exponentially, when compared with the classic SIRS epidemic model.