Influence of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and its Walker circulation cell on October–December rainfall variability over Tanzania
Paul Tilwebwa Shelleph Limbu, Tan Guirong
Abstract
Abstract The study investigates the influence of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and its Walker circulation cell on October–December (OND) rainfall variability over Tanzania. The first two SVD modes contribute 95.3% of the total covariance with the strongest (positive) and significant correlation ( r ≅ .7) at the 99% confidence level showing a close relationship between OND rainfall and MAM tropical Atlantic SST anomalies. Significant positive running correlation observed between MAM Atlantic SSTs and OND rainfall indicates the variability of rainfall observed during the OND season is influenced by variability of Atlantic Ocean SSTs anomaly. Both SVD modes captured the positive phase of the South Atlantic Ocean Dipole (SAOD) which is characterized by warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the southwest pole (SWP) and cool SST anomalies in the northeast pole (NEP). The Walker circulation cell observed is due to inhomogeneous warming over the tropical Atlantic Ocean with ascending limb where it is relatively warm in the SWP and descending limb where it is relatively cool in the NEP. Nonsignificant low correlation is observed between the Atlantic Walker circulation index and the Oceanic Indices (dipole mode index [DMI] and Niño3.4). This indicates that the Atlantic Walker circulation cell is an independent system resulting from local ocean–atmosphere interaction and does not depend on the influence of the tropical Indian or Pacific Oceans. Above average rainfall in Tanzania during the OND season is associated with the ascending limb of the Atlantic Walker circulation cell which is enhanced by convection in the western Atlantic Ocean and the latent heat released through the condensation in the mid‐level which is advected by westerly winds aloft towards the study region, enhancing warming, and ultimately enhancing rainfall over Tanzania.