Contact tracing reveals community transmission of COVID-19 in New York City
Sen Pei, Sasikiran Kandula, Jaime E. Cascante Vega, Wan Yang, Steffen Foerster, Corinne N. Thompson, Jennifer Baumgartner, Shama D. Ahuja, Kathleen Blaney, Jay K. Varma, Theodore Long, Jeffrey Shaman
Abstract
Understanding SARS-CoV-2 transmission within and among communities is critical for tailoring public health policies to local context. However, analysis of community transmission is challenging due to a lack of high-resolution surveillance and testing data. Here, using contact tracing records for 644,029 cases and their contacts in New York City during the second pandemic wave, we provide a detailed characterization of the operational performance of contact tracing and reconstruct exposure and transmission networks at individual and ZIP code scales. We find considerable heterogeneity in reported close contacts and secondary infections and evidence of extensive transmission across ZIP code areas. Our analysis reveals the spatial pattern of SARS-CoV-2 spread and communities that are tightly interconnected by exposure and transmission. We find that locations with higher vaccination coverage and lower numbers of visitors to points-of-interest had reduced within- and cross-ZIP code transmission events, highlighting potential measures for curtailing SARS-CoV-2 spread in urban settings.