Temperature, Crime, and Violence: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Hayon Michelle Choi, Seulkee Heo, Damien Foo, Yimeng Song, Rory Stewart, Ji-Young Son, Michelle L. Bell
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Heat is known to affect many health outcomes, but more evidence is needed on the impact of rising temperatures on crime and/or violence. OBJECTIVES: We conducted a systematic review with meta-analysis regarding the influence of hot temperatures on crime and/or violence. METHODS: eligibility criteria. PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines were used to extract information from included articles. Some study results were combined using a profile likelihood random-effects model for meta-analysis for a subset of outcomes: violent crime (assault, homicide), property crime (theft, burglary), and sexual crime (sexual assault, rape). This review is registered at PROSPERO, CRD42023417295. RESULTS: ; eight studies). Studies had differing definitions of crime and/or violence, exposure assessment methods, and confounder assessments. DISCUSSION: Our findings summarize the evidence supporting the association between elevated temperatures, crime, and violence, particularly for violent crimes. Associations for some categories of crime and/or violence, such as property crimes, were inconsistent. Future research should employ larger spatial/temporal scales, consistent crime and violence definitions, advanced modeling strategies, and different populations and locations. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14300.