Determinants of Social Distancing and Economic Activity During COVID-19: A Global View
William F. Maloney, Temel Taşkın
Abstract
The paper uses Google mobility data to \n identify the determinants of social distancing during the \n 2020 COVID-19 outbreak. The findings for the United States \n indicate that much of the decrease in mobility is voluntary, \n driven by the number of COVID-19 cases and proxying for \n greater awareness of risk. Non-pharmaceutical interventions \n such as closing nonessential businesses, sheltering in \n place, and school closings are also effective, although with \n a total contribution dwarfed by the voluntary actions. This \n suggests that much social distancing will happen regardless \n of the presence of non-pharmaceutical interventions and that \n restrictions may often function more like a coordinating \n device among increasingly predisposed individuals than \n repressive measures per se. These results are consistent \n across country income groups, with only the poorest \n countries showing limited effect of non-pharmaceutical \n interventions and no voluntary component, consistent with \n resistance to abandon sources of livelihood. The paper also \n confirms the direct impact of the voluntary component on \n economic activity, by showing that the majority of the fall \n in restaurant reservations in the United States and movie \n spending in Sweden occurred before the imposition of any \n non-pharmaceutical interventions. Widespread voluntary \n de-mobilization implies that releasing constraints may not \n yield a V-shaped recovery if the reduction in COVID risk is \n not credible.