Influenza Incidence and Vaccine Effectiveness During the Southern Hemisphere Influenza Season — Chile, 2022
María Fernanda Olivares Barraza, Rodrigo Fasce, Francisco Nogareda, Perrine Marcenac, Natalia Vergara Mallegas, Patricia Bustos Alister, Sergio Loayza, Anna N. Chard, Carmen Sofia Arriola, Paula Couto, Christian García, Angel Rodríguez, David E. Wentworth, Cristóbal Cuadrado, Eduardo Azziz‐Baumgartner
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected influenza virus transmission, with historically low activity, atypical timing, or altered duration of influenza seasons during 2020-22 (1,2). Community mitigation measures implemented since 2020, including physical distancing and face mask use, have, in part, been credited for low influenza detections globally during the pandemic, compared with those during prepandemic seasons (1). Reduced population exposure to natural influenza infections during 2020-21 and relaxed community mitigation measures after introduction of COVID-19 vaccines could increase the possibility of severe influenza epidemics. Partners in Chile and the United States assessed Southern Hemisphere influenza activity and estimated age-group-specific rates of influenza-attributable hospitalizations and vaccine effectiveness (VE) in Chile in 2022. Chile's most recent influenza season began in January 2022, which was earlier than during prepandemic seasons and was associated predominantly with influenza A(H3N2) virus, clade 3C.2a1b.2a.2. The cumulative incidence of influenza-attributable pneumonia and influenza (P&I) hospitalizations was 5.1 per 100,000 person-years during 2022, which was higher than that during 2020-21 but lower than incidence during the 2017-19 influenza seasons. Adjusted VE against influenza A(H3N2)-associated hospitalization was 49%. These findings indicate that influenza activity continues to be disrupted after emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in 2020. Northern Hemisphere countries might benefit from preparing for an atypical influenza season, which could include early influenza activity with potentially severe disease during the 2022-23 season, especially in the absence of prevention measures, including vaccination. Health authorities should encourage all eligible persons to seek influenza vaccination and take precautions to reduce transmission of influenza (e.g., avoiding close contact with persons who are ill).