Market prospects for biogas-to-energy projects in the U.S.A. based on a techno-economic assessment of major biogas sources in North Carolina
Lincoln F. Pratson, John P. Fay, Sameer Parvathikar
Abstract
Current market potential for biogas-to-energy projects in the United States is analyzed based on levelized cost of energy (LCOE) estimates for producing renewable electricity, compressed natural gas (bio-CNG) and renewable natural gas at 2,837 landfills, wastewater treatment plants and swine farms in North Carolina having biogas resource potentials of 13 m3/d to > 380,000 m3/d. The LCOE estimates are generated using new approaches for modeling biogas collection from multiple sources via physical pipeline networks or tanker truck transport (a.k.a. “virtual” pipelines) in combination with recent production and cost functions published elsewhere. Whereas the LCOE estimates end up being significantly higher than 2022–23 prices for electricity and natural gas in regional U.S. energy markets, bio-CNG projects collecting > 100 MMBtu/d (1 MMBtu ∼ 1 GJ) of biomethane yield LCOEs on par with recent prices for CNG for transportation of $26–$51/MMBtu. When incentives available through federal and certain state government programs are considered, sites in pipeline networks or in virtual pipelines with biomethane collection rates as low as 45 MMBtu/d could become economically viable. The results of this study help quantify the potential for monetizing an underutilized energy resource in the U.S. that can contribute to decarbonizing the nation’s energy production.