A potential explanation for the global increase in tropical cyclone rapid intensification
Kieran T. Bhatia, Alexander J. Baker, Wenchang Yang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Thomas R. Knutson, Hiroyuki Murakami, James P. Kossin, Kevin I. Hodges, Keith W. Dixon, Benjamin Bronselaer, Carolyn E. Whitlock
Abstract
Tropical cyclone rapid intensification events often cause destructive hurricane landfalls because they are associated with the strongest storms and forecasts with the highest errors. Multi-decade observational datasets of tropical cyclone behavior have recently enabled documentation of upward trends in tropical cyclone rapid intensification in several basins. However, a robust anthropogenic signal in global intensification trends and the physical drivers of intensification trends have yet to be identified. To address these knowledge gaps, here we compare the observed trends in intensification and tropical cyclone environmental parameters to simulated natural variability in a high-resolution global climate model. In multiple basins and the global dataset, we detect a significant increase in intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing. Furthermore, thermodynamic environments around tropical cyclones have become more favorable for intensification, and climate models show anthropogenic warming has significantly increased the probability of these changes.