Spectral Method in Epidemic Time Series: Application to COVID-19 Pandemic
Jacques Demongeot, Pierre Magal
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The age of infection plays an important role in assessing an individual's daily level of contagiousness, quantified by the daily reproduction number. Then, we derive an autoregressive moving average model from a daily discrete-time epidemic model based on a difference equation involving the age of infection. Novelty: The article's main idea is to use a part of the spectrum associated with this difference equation to describe the data and the model. RESULTS: We present some results of the parameters' identification of the model when all the eigenvalues are known. This method was applied to Japan's third epidemic wave of COVID-19 fails to preserve the positivity of daily reproduction. This problem forced us to develop an original truncated spectral method applied to Japanese data. We start by considering ten days and extend our analysis to one month. CONCLUSION: We can identify the shape for a daily reproduction numbers curve throughout the contagion period using only a few eigenvalues to fit the data.