Ranking the risk factors for Alzheimer’s disease; findings from the UK Biobank study
Michael Allwright, Hamish Mundell, Andrew N. McCorkindale, Richard I. Lindley, Paul J. Austin, Boris Guennewig, Greg T. Sutherland
Abstract
Background: The cause of the most common form of dementia, sporadic Alzheimer's disease (AD), remains unknown. This may reflect insufficiently powered studies to date for this multi-factorial disorder. The UK Biobank dataset presents a unique opportunity to rank known risk factors and determine novel variables. Methods: A custom machine learning approach for high dimensionality data was applied to explore prospectively associations between AD in a sub-cohort of 156,209 UK Biobank participants aged 60-70 including more than 2,090 who were subsequently diagnosed with AD. Results: 4 (APOE4) carrier status, the most prominent risk factors in carriers were AST:ALT ratio, the "number of treatments/ medications" taken as well as "time spent in hospital" while protection was conferred by "Sleeplessness/Insomnia". In non-APOE carriers, lower socioeconomic status and fewer years of education were highly ranked but effect sizes were small relative to APOE4 carriers. Conclusions: Possession of the APOE4 allele was confirmed as the most important risk factor in AD. Other TOMM40-APOE-APOC1 locus variants further moderate the risk of AD in APOE4 carriers. Liver pathology is a novel risk factor in APOE4 carriers while "Sleeplessness/Insomnia" is protective in AD irrespective of APOE4 status. Other factors such as "Number of treatments/ medications" suggest that multimorbidity is an important risk factor for AD. Future treatments aimed at co-morbidities, including liver disease, may concomitantly lower the risk of sporadic AD.