Factors affecting prolonged SARS‐CoV‐2 infection and development and validation of predictive nomograms

Abstract

Prolonged severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection has received much attention since it is associated with mortality and is hypothesized as the cause of long COVID-19 and the emergence of a new variant of concerns. However, a prediction model for the accurate prediction of prolonged infection is still lacking. A total of 2938 confirmed patients with COVID-19 diagnosed by positive reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction tests were recruited retrospectively. This study cohort was divided into a training set (70% of study patients; n = 2058) and a validation set (30% of study patients; n = 880). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were utilized to identify predictors for prolonged infection. Model 1 included only preadmission variables, whereas Model 2 also included after-admission variables. Nomograms based on variables of Model 1 and Model 2 were built for clinical use. The efficiency of nomograms was evaluated by using the area under the curve, calibration curves, and concordance indexes (C-index). Independent predictors of prolonged infection included in Model 1 were: age ≥75 years, chronic kidney disease, chronic lung disease, partially or fully vaccinated, and booster. Additional independent predictors in Model 2 were: treated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir more than 5 days after diagnosis and glucocorticoid. The inclusion of after-admission variables in the model slightly improved the discriminatory power (C-index in the training cohort: 0.721 for Model 1 and 0.737 for Model 2; in the validation cohort: 0.699 for Model 1 and 0.719 for Model 2). In our study, we developed and validated predictive models based on readily available variables of preadmission and after-admission for predicting prolonged SARS-CoV-2 infection of patients with COVID-19.

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