Spread & Peak Prediction of Covid-19 using ANN and Regression (Workshop Paper)
Anupam Prakash, Piyush Kumar Sharma, Indrajeet Kumar Sinha, Upendra Singh
Abstract
Covid-19, caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus, has presented tough times for countries all over the world with number of cases and casualties running in millions. While virologists and doctors have spent sleepless nights to come up with a potent vaccine, the work life of government personnel including administrative staffs, hospital employees etc. has not been any easier. Amidst this turmoil, the common question crossing every mind is concerned with the statistics about this infection including expected number of infections, peak prediction etc. We try to answer these questions by analyzing the time series data of Covid-19 infections for certain hard-hit countries and states in India. A series of machine and deep learning models have been built to capture the infection distribution so that these models could predict the fate of this infection in the near future. We also make an attempt to predict the time when active cases would cease to increase.