Will China's urbanization support its carbon peak goal? – A forecast analysis based on the improved GCAM
Huasheng Zhu, Jiachen Yue, Hao Wang
Abstract
• Combined with PED model and GCAM, CO 2 emissions under different urbanization scenarios are predicted. • China's unique urbanization process is reflected – the urban–rural dual system and the birth policy. • China can reach its carbon peak by 2030 with slow urbanization. • The peak time of energy consumption is generally later than that of CO 2 . • In the long run, more rapid urbanization has a stronger emission reduction effect. The urbanization process has an impact on greenhouse gas emissions, but little research has linked specific processes of urbanization to CO 2 emissions. Particularly, for China, the urban–rural dual system and unique fertility policy play an important role in its urbanization process. A large population base and a sharp urban–rural divide need to be taken into account in CO 2 emission forecast. Based on three urbanization processes corresponding to Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios, this article combined the Population-Development-Environment (PDE) model and the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to forecast energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in China in this century. The results show as follows. 1. China’s CO 2 emissions and energy consumption will experience an inverted U-shaped trend. In the rapid, moderate and slow urbanization scenarios, CO 2 emissions peak in 2045, 2035 and 2030 at 11.55 billion tons, 10.88 billion tons and 10.65 billion tons, respectively. 2. The peak time of energy consumption is generally later than that of CO 2 emissions. In the rapid, moderate and slow urbanization scenarios, the primary energy consumption peaks at 212.03 EJ in 2055, 190.65 EJ in 2055 and 171.80 EJ in 2045, respectively; the final energy consumption peaks at 192.34 EJ in 2055, 174.47 EJ in 2055 and 157.25 EJ in 2045, respectively. 3. More rapid urbanization corresponds to a later peak in CO 2 emissions and energy consumption, but the decline is faster after the peak. In the future, China should vigorously implement intensive and sustainable policies to avoid excessive emissions in the urbanization process.